Key Insights
The European Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) market is experiencing robust growth, driven by the expansion of e-commerce, the increasing demand for faster delivery options, and the rise of cross-border shipments. The market's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeding 4% indicates a significant and sustained upward trajectory. Key market segments contributing to this growth include B2C deliveries, fueled by the popularity of online shopping, and express services, reflecting consumer preference for speed and convenience. Growth is particularly strong in countries with well-established e-commerce infrastructures and robust logistics networks, such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. While the market faces challenges such as fluctuating fuel prices and increasing labor costs, technological advancements in tracking, automation, and delivery optimization are mitigating these restraints. The diversification of delivery modes, including air and road transport, ensures resilience against disruptions. Furthermore, the market's segmentation by shipment weight (light, medium, heavy) and end-user industry (e-commerce, healthcare, manufacturing, etc.) allows for targeted market penetration and tailored service offerings by major players like DHL, FedEx, UPS, and others.
The competitive landscape is characterized by both established global players and regional operators. Large multinational companies benefit from economies of scale and extensive network infrastructure, while regional players cater to specific niches and local market requirements. The ongoing consolidation within the sector suggests a trend toward further industry concentration and potentially higher barriers to entry for new businesses. Future growth will be influenced by the increasing adoption of sustainable practices in logistics, technological innovation, and the evolving regulatory environment across different European countries. The market's geographic diversity presents both opportunities and complexities, with variations in infrastructure, regulations, and consumer behavior across the continent. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the competitive dynamics and expanding market reach.
This comprehensive report provides a detailed analysis of the European Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) market, covering market dynamics, growth trends, regional performance, key players, and future outlook. The study period spans from 2019 to 2033, with 2025 as the base year and a forecast period from 2025 to 2033. This report is an invaluable resource for industry professionals, investors, and strategists seeking to understand and capitalize on opportunities within this dynamic market.
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Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Dynamics & Structure
The European CEP market is characterized by a high level of competition among established players and emerging entrants. Market concentration is moderate, with a few dominant players holding significant market share, while numerous smaller companies cater to niche segments. Technological innovation is a key driver, with advancements in automation, tracking, and delivery optimization constantly reshaping the landscape. Regulatory frameworks, including those concerning data privacy and cross-border shipping, significantly impact market operations. Competitive product substitutes, such as postal services and crowd-sourced delivery models, present ongoing challenges. The end-user demographics are diverse, encompassing B2B, B2C, and C2C segments, with the e-commerce sector driving significant growth. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity remains relatively high, with larger players seeking to expand their market reach and service offerings.
- Market Concentration: Moderate, with top 5 players holding approximately xx% of market share in 2025.
- Technological Innovation: Strong driver, with focus on automation, AI-powered routing, and last-mile delivery solutions.
- Regulatory Framework: Significant impact, particularly concerning data protection (GDPR) and cross-border regulations.
- Competitive Substitutes: Postal services and crowd-sourced delivery are key competitive pressures.
- M&A Activity: Significant, driven by expansion strategies and market consolidation. xx M&A deals recorded between 2019 and 2024.
- End-User Demographics: Primarily driven by B2C (xx Million units) and B2B (xx Million units) segments, with C2C growing steadily.
Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Growth Trends & Insights
The European CEP market experienced robust growth throughout the historical period (2019-2024), driven primarily by the expansion of e-commerce and increased demand for faster delivery options. The market size, valued at xx Million units in 2024, is projected to reach xx Million units by 2033, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of xx% during the forecast period (2025-2033). This growth is fueled by technological advancements, such as the adoption of automated sorting facilities and advanced tracking systems. Shifts in consumer behavior, including a preference for same-day and next-day delivery, are further stimulating market expansion. Market penetration of express delivery services is expected to increase from xx% in 2024 to xx% by 2033. Disruptive technologies like drone delivery are expected to gradually impact market dynamics in the later forecast years.
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Dominant Regions, Countries, or Segments in Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market
Germany, the United Kingdom, and France are the leading countries in the European CEP market, accounting for a combined xx% of the total market value in 2025. The dominance of these countries is attributable to their large and well-developed e-commerce sectors, robust infrastructure, and high consumer spending. The B2C segment is the fastest-growing segment, driven by rising e-commerce penetration and increasing consumer expectations for fast and reliable delivery. Express delivery services command a larger market share compared to non-express services, driven by consumer demand for speed and convenience. The road mode of transport is dominant accounting for xx% in 2025, although air freight is expected to see increasing adoption.
- Leading Countries: Germany, United Kingdom, France (combined market share of xx% in 2025).
- Fastest-Growing Segment: B2C, driven by e-commerce growth and consumer preferences.
- Dominant Delivery Speed: Express, fueled by consumer demand for speed and convenience.
- Primary Mode of Transport: Road, with air freight adoption gradually increasing.
- Key Drivers in Dominant Regions: Strong e-commerce infrastructure, high consumer spending, and favorable regulatory environments.
Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Product Landscape
The European CEP market showcases a wide range of products and services, including express delivery, non-express delivery, specialized handling for different goods (temperature-sensitive, fragile), and value-added services such as insurance and tracking. Technological advancements continuously enhance product capabilities, with features like real-time tracking, predictive analytics for delivery optimization, and automated package handling becoming increasingly common. Companies are differentiating themselves through unique selling propositions such as guaranteed delivery times, sustainable delivery options, and integrated software solutions for seamless shipping management.
Key Drivers, Barriers & Challenges in Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market
Key Drivers:
- Expanding e-commerce sector.
- Increased consumer demand for faster delivery.
- Technological advancements in logistics and delivery optimization.
- Growing cross-border trade.
Key Challenges & Restraints:
- Rising fuel costs and labor shortages impacting operational efficiency.
- Stringent regulations and compliance requirements increasing operational complexities.
- Intense competition from established players and new entrants.
- Last-mile delivery challenges, especially in urban areas. Increased delivery costs estimated at xx Million units in 2025 due to urban congestion.
Emerging Opportunities in Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market
- Growth in same-day and on-demand delivery services.
- Expansion into underserved rural areas.
- Integration of sustainable and eco-friendly delivery solutions.
- Increasing adoption of autonomous vehicles and drones for last-mile delivery.
- Development of specialized logistics solutions for niche sectors (e.g., pharmaceuticals, healthcare).
Growth Accelerators in the Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Industry
Strategic partnerships among CEP companies, technology providers, and retailers are driving market growth. Investments in cutting-edge technologies like AI and automation are streamlining operations and enhancing customer experience. Expansion into new markets and underserved regions, coupled with a focus on sustainable practices, contribute significantly to the sector’s expansion. The increasing use of data analytics is improving efficiency in logistics management.
Key Players Shaping the Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Market
- Post NL
- Otto GmbH & Co KG
- United Parcel Service of America Inc (UPS)
- Sterne Group
- DHL Group
- Poste Italiane
- GEODIS
- FedEx
- International Distributions Services (including GLS)
- La Poste Group
- Logista
Notable Milestones in Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Sector
- September 2023: The Otto Group plans to deploy Covariant robots to enhance fulfillment center efficiency and resilience.
- September 2023: Logista Libros opens a new e-commerce facility in Spain to boost capacity and productivity.
- July 2023: Logista acquires Gramma Farmaceutici, strengthening its position in Italian pharmaceutical logistics.
In-Depth Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Market Outlook
The future of the European CEP market looks promising, driven by continued e-commerce growth, technological innovation, and strategic investments. The market is poised for further expansion, with significant opportunities for companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences, leverage technological advancements, and navigate regulatory challenges. The focus on sustainable and efficient delivery solutions will play a key role in shaping the market's trajectory in the coming years. Strategic alliances and mergers are predicted to intensify, further reshaping the competitive landscape.
Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Segmentation
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1. Destination
- 1.1. Domestic
- 1.2. International
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2. Speed Of Delivery
- 2.1. Express
- 2.2. Non-Express
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3. Model
- 3.1. Business-to-Business (B2B)
- 3.2. Business-to-Consumer (B2C)
- 3.3. Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C)
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4. Shipment Weight
- 4.1. Heavy Weight Shipments
- 4.2. Light Weight Shipments
- 4.3. Medium Weight Shipments
-
5. Mode Of Transport
- 5.1. Air
- 5.2. Road
- 5.3. Others
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6. End User Industry
- 6.1. E-Commerce
- 6.2. Financial Services (BFSI)
- 6.3. Healthcare
- 6.4. Manufacturing
- 6.5. Primary Industry
- 6.6. Wholesale and Retail Trade (Offline)
- 6.7. Others
Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Segmentation By Geography
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1. Europe
- 1.1. United Kingdom
- 1.2. Germany
- 1.3. France
- 1.4. Italy
- 1.5. Spain
- 1.6. Netherlands
- 1.7. Belgium
- 1.8. Sweden
- 1.9. Norway
- 1.10. Poland
- 1.11. Denmark
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Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
Aspects | Details |
---|---|
Study Period | 2019-2033 |
Base Year | 2024 |
Estimated Year | 2025 |
Forecast Period | 2025-2033 |
Historical Period | 2019-2024 |
Growth Rate | CAGR of > 4.00% from 2019-2033 |
Segmentation |
|
Table of Contents
- 1. Introduction
- 1.1. Research Scope
- 1.2. Market Segmentation
- 1.3. Research Methodology
- 1.4. Definitions and Assumptions
- 2. Executive Summary
- 2.1. Introduction
- 3. Market Dynamics
- 3.1. Introduction
- 3.2. Market Drivers
- 3.2.1. Increasing consumption of canned and frozen food; Growth urbanization and increased adoption of healthy lifestyle
- 3.3. Market Restrains
- 3.3.1. Limited self-life of frozen food; Growing awareness regarding the consumption of fresh vegetables and fruits
- 3.4. Market Trends
- 3.4.1. OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT
- 4. Market Factor Analysis
- 4.1. Porters Five Forces
- 4.2. Supply/Value Chain
- 4.3. PESTEL analysis
- 4.4. Market Entropy
- 4.5. Patent/Trademark Analysis
- 5. Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 5.1. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Destination
- 5.1.1. Domestic
- 5.1.2. International
- 5.2. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Speed Of Delivery
- 5.2.1. Express
- 5.2.2. Non-Express
- 5.3. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Model
- 5.3.1. Business-to-Business (B2B)
- 5.3.2. Business-to-Consumer (B2C)
- 5.3.3. Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C)
- 5.4. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Shipment Weight
- 5.4.1. Heavy Weight Shipments
- 5.4.2. Light Weight Shipments
- 5.4.3. Medium Weight Shipments
- 5.5. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Mode Of Transport
- 5.5.1. Air
- 5.5.2. Road
- 5.5.3. Others
- 5.6. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by End User Industry
- 5.6.1. E-Commerce
- 5.6.2. Financial Services (BFSI)
- 5.6.3. Healthcare
- 5.6.4. Manufacturing
- 5.6.5. Primary Industry
- 5.6.6. Wholesale and Retail Trade (Offline)
- 5.6.7. Others
- 5.7. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Region
- 5.7.1. Europe
- 5.1. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Destination
- 6. Germany Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 7. France Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 8. Italy Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 9. United Kingdom Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 10. Netherlands Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 11. Sweden Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 12. Rest of Europe Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 13. Competitive Analysis
- 13.1. Market Share Analysis 2024
- 13.2. Company Profiles
- 13.2.1 Post NL
- 13.2.1.1. Overview
- 13.2.1.2. Products
- 13.2.1.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.1.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.1.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.2 Otto GmbH & Co KG
- 13.2.2.1. Overview
- 13.2.2.2. Products
- 13.2.2.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.2.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.2.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.3 United Parcel Service of America Inc (UPS
- 13.2.3.1. Overview
- 13.2.3.2. Products
- 13.2.3.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.3.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.3.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.4 Sterne Group
- 13.2.4.1. Overview
- 13.2.4.2. Products
- 13.2.4.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.4.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.4.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.5 DHL Group
- 13.2.5.1. Overview
- 13.2.5.2. Products
- 13.2.5.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.5.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.5.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.6 Poste Italiane
- 13.2.6.1. Overview
- 13.2.6.2. Products
- 13.2.6.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.6.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.6.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.7 GEODIS
- 13.2.7.1. Overview
- 13.2.7.2. Products
- 13.2.7.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.7.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.7.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.8 FedEx
- 13.2.8.1. Overview
- 13.2.8.2. Products
- 13.2.8.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.8.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.8.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.9 International Distributions Services (including GLS)
- 13.2.9.1. Overview
- 13.2.9.2. Products
- 13.2.9.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.9.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.9.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.10 La Poste Group
- 13.2.10.1. Overview
- 13.2.10.2. Products
- 13.2.10.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.10.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.10.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.11 Logista
- 13.2.11.1. Overview
- 13.2.11.2. Products
- 13.2.11.3. SWOT Analysis
- 13.2.11.4. Recent Developments
- 13.2.11.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 13.2.1 Post NL
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Breakdown (Million, %) by Product 2024 & 2032
- Figure 2: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Share (%) by Company 2024
List of Tables
- Table 1: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Region 2019 & 2032
- Table 2: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Destination 2019 & 2032
- Table 3: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Speed Of Delivery 2019 & 2032
- Table 4: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Model 2019 & 2032
- Table 5: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Shipment Weight 2019 & 2032
- Table 6: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Mode Of Transport 2019 & 2032
- Table 7: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by End User Industry 2019 & 2032
- Table 8: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Region 2019 & 2032
- Table 9: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Country 2019 & 2032
- Table 10: Germany Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 11: France Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 12: Italy Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 13: United Kingdom Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 14: Netherlands Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 15: Sweden Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 16: Rest of Europe Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 17: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Destination 2019 & 2032
- Table 18: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Speed Of Delivery 2019 & 2032
- Table 19: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Model 2019 & 2032
- Table 20: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Shipment Weight 2019 & 2032
- Table 21: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Mode Of Transport 2019 & 2032
- Table 22: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by End User Industry 2019 & 2032
- Table 23: Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Country 2019 & 2032
- Table 24: United Kingdom Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 25: Germany Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 26: France Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 27: Italy Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 28: Spain Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 29: Netherlands Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 30: Belgium Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 31: Sweden Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 32: Norway Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 33: Poland Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 34: Denmark Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is the projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market?
The projected CAGR is approximately > 4.00%.
2. Which companies are prominent players in the Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market?
Key companies in the market include Post NL, Otto GmbH & Co KG, United Parcel Service of America Inc (UPS, Sterne Group, DHL Group, Poste Italiane, GEODIS, FedEx, International Distributions Services (including GLS), La Poste Group, Logista.
3. What are the main segments of the Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market?
The market segments include Destination, Speed Of Delivery, Model, Shipment Weight, Mode Of Transport, End User Industry.
4. Can you provide details about the market size?
The market size is estimated to be USD XX Million as of 2022.
5. What are some drivers contributing to market growth?
Increasing consumption of canned and frozen food; Growth urbanization and increased adoption of healthy lifestyle.
6. What are the notable trends driving market growth?
OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT.
7. Are there any restraints impacting market growth?
Limited self-life of frozen food; Growing awareness regarding the consumption of fresh vegetables and fruits.
8. Can you provide examples of recent developments in the market?
September 2023: The Otto Group plans to deploy Covariant robots to increase operational efficiency, build resilience against labor market challenges, and improve the overall quality of work within their fulfillment centers.September 2023: Logista Libros, a part of the Logista Group, announced that it had opened a new facility specifically for e-commerce in Spain to increase storage capacity and productivity in the preparation of e-commerce orders. This new facility is an extension of the company’s distribution center in Cabanillas del Campo.July 2023: Logista completed the acquisition of Gramma Farmaceutici, a company specializing in logistics services for the Italian pharmaceutical industry. This strategic acquisition was a part of Logista's expansion plan in Italy to further strengthen its position in pharmaceutical distribution.
9. What pricing options are available for accessing the report?
Pricing options include single-user, multi-user, and enterprise licenses priced at USD 3800, USD 4500, and USD 5800 respectively.
10. Is the market size provided in terms of value or volume?
The market size is provided in terms of value, measured in Million.
11. Are there any specific market keywords associated with the report?
Yes, the market keyword associated with the report is "Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market," which aids in identifying and referencing the specific market segment covered.
12. How do I determine which pricing option suits my needs best?
The pricing options vary based on user requirements and access needs. Individual users may opt for single-user licenses, while businesses requiring broader access may choose multi-user or enterprise licenses for cost-effective access to the report.
13. Are there any additional resources or data provided in the Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market report?
While the report offers comprehensive insights, it's advisable to review the specific contents or supplementary materials provided to ascertain if additional resources or data are available.
14. How can I stay updated on further developments or reports in the Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market?
To stay informed about further developments, trends, and reports in the Europe Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market, consider subscribing to industry newsletters, following relevant companies and organizations, or regularly checking reputable industry news sources and publications.
Methodology
Step 1 - Identification of Relevant Samples Size from Population Database



Step 2 - Approaches for Defining Global Market Size (Value, Volume* & Price*)

Note*: In applicable scenarios
Step 3 - Data Sources
Primary Research
- Web Analytics
- Survey Reports
- Research Institute
- Latest Research Reports
- Opinion Leaders
Secondary Research
- Annual Reports
- White Paper
- Latest Press Release
- Industry Association
- Paid Database
- Investor Presentations

Step 4 - Data Triangulation
Involves using different sources of information in order to increase the validity of a study
These sources are likely to be stakeholders in a program - participants, other researchers, program staff, other community members, and so on.
Then we put all data in single framework & apply various statistical tools to find out the dynamic on the market.
During the analysis stage, feedback from the stakeholder groups would be compared to determine areas of agreement as well as areas of divergence